The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Rwanda’s 2024 economic growth projection to 8.3 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 6.6 percent. This revision follows a two-week mission by the IMF team to review the country’s economic progress.
The IMF attributed this optimistic outlook to strong performances in the service and construction sectors, alongside a recovery in food crop production. Inflation is expected to remain stable within the central bank’s target range, supported by tight monetary policy and favorable developments in food prices. The National Bank of Rwanda remains confident inflation would remain around 5 percent through 2025.
The mission leader, Ruben Atoyan, noted that the 6.6 percent depreciation of the Rwandan franc against the US dollar was a necessary adjustment to support external balance, with international reserves standing at 4.5 months of import cover by mid-2024. These reserves act as a buffer against potential external shocks.
The IMF mission, which focused on Rwanda’s progress under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and the Standby Credit Facility (SCF), reported that macroeconomic performance through June 2024 remained in line with program objectives. Key reforms, particularly in public investment transparency and foreign exchange market efficiency, are advancing well.
However, the mission highlighted that recurrent shocks in recent years have complicated the government’s efforts to rebuild fiscal buffers. Fiscal consolidation has been slower than anticipated, leading to a rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio.
Upon completion of the review in mid-December, Rwanda is set to receive $95.9 million under the RSF and $89 million through the SCF. Atoyan praised the country’s commitment to climate-related reforms, with measures such as climate budget tagging, enhancing public investment resilience, adopting sustainability disclosure standards, and developing a green taxonomy expected to be finalized soon.
