By Bryan Kimenyi
When the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was signed in Kigali in 2018, the pact was hailed as a transformative step toward a $3.4 trillion single market. The agreement, designed to cut tariffs on 90% of goods and unlock an estimated $450 billion in additional revenue by 2035, promised to reshape trade across Africa.
Seven years later, the ambition remains intact—but execution is falling short. While 46 out of 55 African Union nations have ratified the deal, progress has been hampered by logistical bottlenecks, uneven political will, and weak infrastructure. The question now: Can AfCFTA overcome these barriers, or was the vision always too ambitious?
Patchy Progress, Stubborn Realities
There have been early wins. In 2023, Ghanaian cocoa exporters and South African textile firms struck notable deals under AfCFTA’s framework. Yet these cases remain outliers. Intra-African trade remains stuck at just 15% of total commerce, a fraction of Europe’s 60%, with structural and regulatory obstacles still in place.
One key flaw: AfCFTA assumes that tariff elimination alone will drive trade. But without strong production capacity, lower tariffs mean little. Disparities between economies make implementation uneven. Nigeria, with a $700 billion economy, and Burundi, with a GDP of just $3.1 billion, are both required to open 97% of their markets. Without flexibility tailored to national economic strength, uniform rules risk widening gaps rather than closing them.
Logistics Lag, Costs Surge
Beyond production, infrastructure remains a major constraint. Intra-African rail networks account for just 0.1% of trade flows. Roads are fragmented, and port congestion is severe. A 2024 case underscored the dysfunction: A Kenyan shipment to Ghana under AfCFTA rules took six months, rerouting through Singapore and Dubai.
Africa’s reliance on foreign-owned logistics compounds the problem—98% of maritime shipping lines serving the continent are controlled by non-African firms, pushing up costs and slowing deliveries. Fixing this requires more than policy tweaks. Governments need to prioritize spending on transport networks and tap into funding, such as the African Development Bank’s $10 billion trade finance facility. Without serious investment, a seamless continental market remains aspirational.
External Trade Deals Undermine Unity
AfCFTA’s architects, led by Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, pushed for a unified approach, even barring members from signing new trade deals with third parties until the framework took hold. Yet that unity has frayed. Kenya struck a trade pact with the UK, and Egypt deepened ties with the UAE. Regional blocs like ECOWAS and SADC, intended as building blocks for AfCFTA, still lack cohesion.
Geopolitical shifts add another layer of complexity. The U.S. froze aid to South Africa over land reform policies, a reminder of how external pressures can complicate Africa’s trade ambitions. If AfCFTA is to succeed, African economies must prioritize continental trade over short-term bilateral agreements that entrench external dependencies.
AfCFTA’s Future Hinges on Action
The potential remains enormous. A fully implemented AfCFTA could lift 30 million people out of poverty by 2035, according to the World Bank. But success is not guaranteed. Infrastructure investment, flexible trade policies, and deeper regional cooperation are essential. Without them, AfCFTA risks being a well-intended but unrealized promise rather than a driver of economic transformation.
Seven years on, the vision of a connected African market is still within reach—but only if leaders take the necessary steps to turn ambition into reality.
